Spiro's Mortgage & Real Estate Source

Looking for safe cities in which to live? A recent study may help you.

Titled "America's Safest Cities", Forbes Magazine compiled data from more than 70 cities with populations of 250,000 or more, and ranked them by violent crime rate as reported by the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

A "violent crime" is one that can be categorized as murder, robbery, and assault, among others. Then, for each metropolis, local traffic-fatality rates were added to the area's violent crime rate, and averaged into the data.

Forbes presents the 10 safest large cities in America as :

1. Plano, Texas
2. Henderson, Nevada
3. Honolulu, Hawaii
4. Santa Ana, California
5. Lincoln, Nebraska
6. San Jose, California
7. Mesa. Arizona
8. Colorado Springs, Colorado
9. Aurora, Colorado
10. New York, New York

Forbes is quick to note that "gridlocked" traffic patterns help keep cities safe; which may explain why cities like Honolulu and New York City made the Top 10. When cars are forced to move more slowly, the report states, traffic-related fatalities tend to plummet.

Don't rush to make a home-buying decision based on Forbes data alone, however. Like everything else in real estate, data is local and city-wide statistics are too broad to be helpful to an everyday buyer in Novato.

For accurate, real-time, local crime data, be sure to ask a real estate profession.

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Have you been floating a mortgage rate? It may be time to lock.

At 8:30 AM ET Friday, the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its November Non-Farm Payrolls report. Better known as “the jobs report”, the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls figures provide sector-by-sector employment data, and tally the size of the current U.S. workforce size.

From these two elements, the national Unemployment Rate is derived.

Since topping out at 10.2% in October 2009, the Unemployment Rate has dropped to 9.0%. More than 2.3 million net new jobs have been made in the last 24 months.

Wall Street expect to see 125,000 more jobs added in November.

Depending on how closely the actual Non-Farm Payrolls data meets Wall Street expectations, Novato rate shoppers could find that the mortgage market landscape has shifted beneath them. The jobs report is a mortgage-market catalyst and when its reported value differs from Wall Street expectations, the impact on mortgage rates can be palpable — especially in a recovering economy.

The connection between the jobs market and the mortgage market is straight-forward — as the jobs market goes, so goes the economy.

1. When more people work, consumer spending increases
2. When consumer spending rises, businesses expand and invest
3. When businesses expand and invest, more people are put to work

Furthermore, employees and employers both pay taxes to governments. With more tax revenue, governments embark upon new projects which (1) require the hiring of additional workers, and (2) require the purchase and/or repair of additional equipment and supplies. 

Employment can be a self-reinforcing cycle for the economy and that’s why Friday’s jobs report will be so closely watched. If the number of jobs created exceeds the 125,000 expected, mortgage rates will rise on the expectation for a stronger U.S. economy in 2012.

Conversely, if the jobs figures fall short, mortgage rates may fall. 

Mortgage rates continue to hover near all-time lows according to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is sub-4.000 percent nationwide, with an accompanying fee of 0.7 discount points. 1 discount point is equal to 1 percent of your loan size.

If you’re under contract for a home or looking to refinance, minimize your interest rate risk. Lock ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls release.

Get your rate lock in today.

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If you plan to buy of new construction sometime in 2012, don't expect today's low prices. Like everything in housing of late, the market for newly-built homes appears to be stabilizing and, in some markets, improving.

As foreshadowed by this month's strong Homebuilder Confidence survey, the Census Bureau reports that the number of new homes sold rose to a 6-month high in October, climbing to 307,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis.

A "new home" is a home that is considered new construction. It's the opposite of an "existing home".

Home buyers are comparing new construction to home resales and liking what they see. At the current sales pace, the nation's complete new home inventory would now be depleted in just 6.3 months. This marks the lowest home supply since April 2010 -- the last month of the last year's federal homebuyer tax credit.

By building only to meet new demand, builders are keeping home supplies in check, and home prices stable. They've also found a niche market -- 80% of homes sold last month sold for less than $300,000.

Split by region, the Census Bureau reports October's New Home Sales as follows :

• Northeast Region : +0.0% from September 2011 
• Midwest Region : +22.2% from September 2011 
• South Region : -9.5% from September 2011 
• West Region : -14.9% from September 2011 

Unfortunately, the data may be incorrect.

Although the October New Home Sales report says that sales climbed 1.3 percent last month, the government's data was published with a ±19.7% margin of error. This means that the actual New Home Sales reading may have been as high as +21.0 percent, or as low as -18.4 percent. Because the range of values includes both positive and negative values, the Census Bureau assigned its October data "zero confidence".

As home buyers, then, we can't take our market cues from the published data. Instead, we should look to other metrics including Housing Starts data and the aforementioned homebuilder confidence survey. Each points to strength in the new home market, and foretells higher home prices in 2012.

If you're in the market for new construction, consider writing an offer soon. Home prices remain low and mortgage rates do, too -- a combination that keeps home payments low. Next year, that may not be the case.

Posted by Spiro The Loan Guy at 6:08 AM 0 comments

Labels: Margin of Error, New Home Sales, New Home Supply

Home improvement projects are booming, expected to cross $110 billion in total volume this quarter. Unlike in recent years, however, the projects aren't helping to create much new home equity.

This figure is down sharply from 2005, when the cost-to-value ratio was 87 percent. 

Today's San Francisco homeowners get a much smaller payoff on their home improvement projects. If you're planning to remodel/update in preparation for sale, therefore, consider the following projects, each of which carries a high cost-to-value ratio.

From Remodeling Magazine's "Mid-Range Project" list :

• Steel Entry Door Replacement : Cost, $1,238; Recoup, 73.0%
• Attic Bedroom : Cost, $50,184; Recoup, 72.5%
• Minor Kitchen Remodel : Cost, $19,588; Recoup, 72.1%
• Garage Door Replacement : Cost, $1,512; Recoup, 71.9%
• Wood Deck Addition : Cost, $10,350; Recoup 70.1%

By contrast, other projects carry a low cost-to-value ratio, and should only be undertaken if the project's utility exceeds its cost. These projects don't do much to raise a home's resale value.

• Home Office Remodel : Cost, $27,963; Recoup, 42.9%
• Sunroom Addition : Cost, $34,133; Recoup, 45.9%
• Backup Power Generator : Cost, $14,760; Recoup, 47.5%
• Bathroom Addition : Cost, $140,096512; Recoup, 51.0%
• Fiberglass Entry Door Replacement : Cost, $3,536; Recoup 56.3%

In the "Upscale Projects" category, projects including the replacement of doors, siding and windows occupy the list's first 6 slots in terms of cost-to-value. 

If you're planning a home improvement project over the next few months, the timing is right -- both contractor costs and material costs are low nationwide, and improving a home can extend its useful life.

See the complete Cost vs Value report online.

Posted by Spiro The Loan Guy at 5:48 AM 0 comments

Happy Holidays!